Rainfall likely to be below normal in NE: IMD

Guwahati: The IMD announced on Tuesday that the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall from June to Sept is expected to be below normal in northeast India, reaching approximately 94% of the Long Period Average.

Recent days have seen substantial rainfall across the northeast following monsoon arrival. However, excluding Jammu and Kashmir, rainfall deficiency in May persists in four northeastern states — Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. As of Tuesday in May, Assam and Nagaland received normal rainfall, while Meghalaya experienced excess precipitation.

The IMD's subdivision-wise JJAS 2025 Rainfall Probability Forecast released on Tuesday indicates normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA) for the Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura Met sub-division. The forecast predicts below normal rainfall for Arunachal Pradesh (<91% of LPA) and Assam-Meghalaya (<93% of LPA) Met sub-divisions.

The nationwide southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is projected at 106% of the Long Period Average, with a ±4% model error. The IMD indicates this suggests above normal rainfall across the country during the monsoon season (June to Sept) 2025.

The updated Long Range Forecast issued on Tuesday projects normal to above normal rainfall across most regions, except parts of northwest and east India, and numerous areas of northeast India where below normal rainfall is anticipated during June to Sept 2025.

For June, while most of the country expects normal to above normal monthly rainfall, the northeast anticipates below normal precipitation. Additionally, the IMD forecasts normal to below normal monthly maximum temperatures across most regions, although northeast India is likely to experience above normal temperatures.